This is an updated list (previous version was August 20, 2019) of claims by U.S. government officials about the effectiveness of the U.S. Ground-Based Midcourse (GMD) national missile defense system. It adds five additional claims (#s 60, 61, 62, 63, and 64).
A developing theme in recent statements, following the cancellation of the Redesigned Kill Vehicle, is that while the GMD system is currently highly effective, it will start to lose effectiveness in the mid to late 2020s, as the threat increases and the current interceptors age. Thus, the argument goes, there is an urgent need to upgrade the system soon.
(1) September 1, 2000: “… I simply cannot conclude, with the information I have today, that we have enough confidence in the technology and the operational effectiveness of the entire NMD system to move forward to deployment. Therefore, I have decided not to authorize deployment of a national missile defense at this time.” President Bill Clinton, at Georgetown University, September 1, 2000.
(2) March 18, 2003: “Effectiveness is in the 90% range.”[1] Edward Aldridge, Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics.
(3) March 23, 2003: “There are a lot of things that go into [determining] effectiveness. Everybody can be right.” [2] MDA Director Ronald Kadish, in response to a question about Aldridge’s statement.
(4) July 21, 2005: “We have a better than zero chance of intercepting, I believe, an inbound warhead.” That confidence will improve with time.” MDA Director Lt. General Henry Obering.[3]
(5) March 14, 2006: “When the president declares limited defensive operational capability, we are prepared as the shooter, if you will, to execute the mission to defend our country. And I’m very confident in the efficacy of that system.”[4] Admiral Timothy Keating, Commander of U.S. Northern Command.
(6) June 2006: “(From) what I have seen and what I know about the system and its capabilities I am very confident.”[5] MDA Director Lt. Gen. Henry Obering.
(7) July 6, 2006: “If it headed to the United States, we’ve got a missile defense system that will defend our country.” President George W. Bush in response to a question on Larry King Live about North Korea’s unsuccessful test of a long-range ballistic missile the day before.
(8) September 1, 2006: “I would say that if we had to use the system in an operational mode, it would be very capable.”[6] MDA Director Lt. Gen. Henry Obering.
(9) January 29, 2007: “We are Confident The Ballistic Missile Defense System Would Have Operated As Designed Had The Taepo Dong-2 Threatened The U.S.,” MDA Deputy Director Brigadier General Patrick O’Reilly.[7]
(10) October 2, 2007: “ – does the system work? The answer to that is yes. Is it going to work against more complex threats in the future? We believe it will.” MDA Director Lt. Gen. Henry Obering.[8]
(11) November 2, 2008: “I have very high confidence we could defend the United States against that threat.”[9] MDA Director Lt. Gen. Henry Obering, about one or two missiles launched from North Korea.
(12) March 27, 2009: “And Senator, I’ll tell you, if we felt the North Koreans were going to shoot a ballistic missile at us today, I am comfortable that we would have an effective system able to meet that threat.”[10] General Victor Renaurt, Commander U.S. Northern Command, U.S. Africa Command and U.S. Transportation Command.
(13) June 9, 2009: “I think that the judgement and advice I got was that the 30 silos we have now, or are under construction, are fully adequate to protect us against a North Korean threat for a number of years.”[11] And “I have confidence that if North Korea launched a long-range missile in the direction of the United States, that we would have a high probability of being able to defend ourselves against it.” Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates.
(14) June 16, 2009: Confidence that a North Korean missile could be shot down is: “ninety percent plus.”[12] MDA Director Lt. Gen. Patrick O’Reilly.
(15) June 18, 2009 (approximately): “I’d believe we have a reasonable chance” of intercepting a North Korean missile. Director of Operational Test and Evaluation Charles McQueary, in an interview on his last day in the job.[13]
(16) July 28, 2009: “Well, we have a very proven missile system in the area of missiles coming out of North Korea.”[14] MDA Director Lt. Gen. Patrick O’Reilly.
(17) April 21, 2010: “It is the belief of the — of the leaders of this department that we have the capability to defend the United States against the — against an ICBM threat from a rogue nation such as Iran or North Korea. We are confident in the system we have at this point.”[15] Geoff Morrell, Pentagon Press Secretary.
(18) December 1, 2010: “…the probability will be well in the high 90s today of the GMD system being able to intercept that today.” MDA Director Patrick O’Reilly in response to a question from Representative Trent Franks about countering “one ICBM coming from Tehran to New York.”[16]
(19) April 13, 2011: “The posture we have today is one that has us well-protected against the initial ICBMs that might be deployed by states like North Korea and Iran with — that are few in number, relatively slow and lack sophisticated countermeasures.”[17] Bradley Roberts, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy.
(20) December 12, 2012: “I’m very confident that American defense capabilities are able, no problem, to block a rocket like this one.” U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, in response to a question from CNN on the capability of U.S missile defenses, December 12, 2012.[18]
(21) March 7, 2013: “I can tell you that the United States is fully capable of defending against any North Korean ballistic missile attack. And our recent success in returning to testing of the upgraded version of the so-called GBI, or the CE2 missile, will keep us on a good trajectory to improve our defense capability against limited ballistic missile threats such as those from North Korea. But let’s be clear, we are fully capable of dealing with that threat.” White House Press Secretary Jay Carney, in response to a question at White House Daily Press Briefing, March 7, 2013.[19]
(22) March 15, 2013: “We have confidence in our system. And we certainly will not go forward with the additional 14 interceptors until we are sure that we have the complete confidence that we will need. But the American people should be assured that our interceptors are effective.” Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel, in response to a question at a Pentagon press conference, March 15, 2013.
(23) April 9, 2013: “I believe we have a credible ability to defend the homeland, to defend Hawaii, to defend Guam, to defend our forward-deployed forces and defend our allies.” Admiral Samuel Locklear, Commander, U.S. Pacific Command, Senate Armed Services Committee, April 9, 2013 in response to a question about intercepting North Korean missiles.[20]
(24) May 9, 2013: “We do have confidence in the ability of the ballistic missile defense system to defend the United States against a limited attack from both North Korea and Iran today and in the near future.” Lt. General Richard Formica, Commander of the U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command/Army Forces Strategic Command and Commander of the Joint Functional Component Command for Integrated Missile Defense, in response to a question from Senator Mark Udall about the capability of “our current GMD system to defend all of the United States, including the East Coast, against current and near-term ballistic missile threats from both North Korea and Iran?”[21]
(25) May 9, 2013: “The East Coast is well-protected as the result of — well, it was protected before the additional — and this additional ’14 provides additional protection both for anything from North Korea as well as anything from Iran should that threat develop.” Madelyn Creedon, Assistant Defense Secretary for Global Strategic Affairs, in response to a question from Senator Mark Udall (and referring to the recently announced plan to deploy 14 additional interceptors in Alaska).[22]
(26) July 2013: “I stand by my response in the testimony I provided on May 9.” Lt. General Richard Formica, Commander of the U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command, when asked about the effectiveness of the GMD System shortly after failure of FTG-07 on July 5, 2013.[23]
(27) July 10, 2013: “But we maintain that we have a robust missile defense system in place to defend the United States and our allies from a range of threats.” “We have a range of assets that can support American missile defense, and we are confident that we can defend this country from the missile threat.” Pentagon Press Secretary George Little , July 9 2013 (four days after the failed FTG-07 intercept test of the GMD system).[24]
(28) Sometime before August 21, 2013: “Of course you’re protected. Yes, you’re protected. We’re proud to protect you.” MDA Director Vice Admiral James Syring, in response to the question “Am I protected where I live?” asked by a person sitting next to him on an airplane.[25]
(29) March 25, 2014: Regarding the GMD system: “We have confidence in the current capability. Do we need to do more? Do we need to continue to do the necessary testing? Yes. But we have confidence in the operational employment, the rules of engagement that we would use that would address maybe some reliability or some uncertainty associated with the system.” Lieutenant General David L. Mann, Commanding General U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command/Army Strategic Forces Command and Joint Functional Component Command for Integrated Missile Defense.[26]
(30) March 25, 2014: “As a policy official who is often briefed by those who develop and operate the system, I am confident that the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system can defend the United States against a limited intercontinental ballistic missile attack.” Elaine M. Bunn, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Defense for Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy.[27]
(31) March 19, 2015: Regarding the GMD system: “We have high confidence in the ability of this system to defeat an ICBM strike against the United States from an enemy with limited ICBM capabilities.” Admiral Bill Gortney, Commander North American Aerospace Command and U.S. Northern Command.[28]
(32) March 25, 2015: Regarding the GMD system: “As the Secretary of Defense and various Combatant Commanders have previously testified, the Warfighter remains confident in our ability to protect the Nation against a limited intercontinental ballistic missile attack, even in the face of the changing fiscal environment.” Lieutenant General David L. Mann, Commanding General U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command/Army Strategic Forces Command and Joint Functional Component Command for Integrated Missile Defense.[29]
(33) October 7, 2015: Speaking about the North Korean ICBM threat to the U.S. homeland: “We’re ready for him, and we’re ready 24 hours a day if he should be dumb enough to shoot something at us.” Admiral Bill Gortney, Commander North American Aerospace Defense Command and U.S. Northern Command, at an Atlantic Council event, October 7, 2015.[30]
(34) April 13, 2016: In response to a question about missile defense coverage of Hawaii: “The people of Hawaii are protected today from the North Korean threat.” MDA Director Vice Admiral James D. Syring.[31]
(35) April 13, 2016: “The U.S. homeland is currently protected against potential ICBM attacks from States like North Korea and Iran if it was to develop an ICBM in the future.” Brian P. McKeon, Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy.[32]
(36) April 14, 2016: In response to a question about the GMD system’s coverage of Hawaii: “We’re prepared to engage and protect Hawaii, Alaska and the rest of the states with the existing system and have high confidence in its success.” Admiral Bill Gortney, Commander North American Aerospace Defense Command and U.S. Northern Command.[33]
(37) December 2016: “Previous assessments of the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system remain unchanged. GMD has demonstrated a limited capability to defend the U.S. Homeland from small numbers of simple intermediate-range or Intercontinental ballistic missile threats launched from North Korea or Iran. DOT&E cannot quantitatively assess GMD performance due to lack of ground tests supported by accredited modeling and simulation (M&S).”[34] J. Michael Gilmore, Director, Operational Test and Evaluation.
(38) January 3, 2017: “We have a ballistic missile defense, a missile defense umbrella that we’re confident in for the region and to protect the United States homeland and we’ll continue to be confident in it, given where we are today in the technology and the skill with which our forces are using the – that technology.”[35] Pentagon Press Secretary Peter Cook, in response to a question.
(39) January 9, 2017: “I am very confident in the system and procedures” the U.S. Northern Command, which operates the missile shield “will employ to intercept a North Korean ICBM were they to shoot it towards our territory.”[36] MDA Director Vice Admiral James Syring, in response to a question about the DOT&E assessment in (37) above.
(40) April 6, 2017: “I am extremely confident of our capability to defend the United States of America and be able to intercept an ICBM should it reach our homeland” and “Today we have exactly what we need to defend the United States of America against North Korea.” [37] General Lori Robinson, Commander U.S. Northern Command and Commander, North American Aerospace Command.
(41) April 11, 2017: “I’ve read articles, you read it in the paper, ‘Oh it’s only got a 50 percent hit rate.’ I’d take 50 percent.”[38] Major General Jeffrey L. Bannister, Commander, Fort Drum, New York (one of three sites under consideration as a possible east coast GMD deployment site).
(42) April, 2017: The Pentagon “is confident in our ability to defend the homeland against ballistic missile threats.” “… we have made significant improvements over the last several years to ensure the system is able to operate as designed.”[39] Chris Johnson, MDA spokesman.
(43) May 30, 2017. This system is vitally important to the defense of our homeland, and this test demonstrates that we have a capable, credible deterrent against a very real threat.[40] Vice Admiral James Syring, Director of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency, following a successful test of the U.S. GMD national missile defense system.
(44) June 2017. It’s at least as good as a coin toss. (the chance that any individual interceptor could down a warhead at the time the system was set up in 2004).[41] Lt. General (retired) Patrick O’Reilly, former Director of the Missile Defense Agency.
(45) July 22, 2017. The United States military can defend against a limited North Korea attack on Seoul, Japan and the United States.[42] General Joe Dunford, Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of staff speaking about North Korea’s missile threat.
(46) July 30, 2017. As the commander responsible for defending the homeland, I want to assure our citizens the USNORTHCOM remains unwavering in our confidence that we can fully defend the United States against this ballistic missile threat.[43] General Lori Robinson, Commander of the North American Aerospace Defense Command and U.S. Northern Command, speaking about the North Korean ballistic missile threat.
(47) August 2017. Yes, we believe that the currently deployed ballistic missile defense system can meet today’s threat and we’ve demonstrated that capability through testing.[44] Lt. General Samuel Greaves, Director of the Missile Defense Agency.
(48) August 2017. 100 per cent confidence the missile system would work.[45] Col. Kevin Kick, Commander of the 100th Missile Defense Brigade (Fort Greely and Vandenberg).
(49) September 6, 2017. If your children tonight ask if we’re safe from North Korea, I will tell you we have the strongest defense possible against that threat right now, today.[46] Rear Admiral Jon Hill, Deputy Director of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency.
(50) September 2017. Very confident in the United States’ ability to protect all 50 states.[47] General John Hyten, Commander of U.S. Strategic Command.
(51) October 11, 2017. We have missiles that can knock out a missile in the air 97 percent of the time, and if you send two of them, it’s going to get knocked down.[48] U.S. President Donald Trump discussing the North Korean ICBM threat in an interview with Sean Hannity on Fox News, October 11, 2017.
(52) February 15, 2018. I am 100 percent confident in my ability to defend the United States of America. General Lori Robinson, Commander of U.S. Northern Command in response to the question “So to be clear, do you have confidence in the ability of the GMD system to defend the United States from a North Korean ballistic missile attack?” asked by Senator Deb Fischer.[49]
(53) March 22, 2018. So I believe we are perfectly positioned to defense against today’s threat. Missile Defense Agency Director Lt. General Samuel Greaves in response to a question about the North Korean missile threat asked by Senator Deb Fischer.[50]
(54) April 17, 2018. Senator she has. And I would say with high confidence that I believe that the ground-based midcourse defense system in place today has the ability to defend against a North Korea ballistic missile strike. General Terrence O’Shaughnessy, at the hearing for his nomination to be the next Commander of the U.S. Northern Command when asked by Senator James Inhofe if he had been convinced by the statement by the current Northern Command Commander General Lori Robinson that the GMD system would be 100% effective (see February 15, 2018 quote).[51]
(55) January 17, 2019. The United States is protected against a limited ICBM as a result of investments made in the ground-based mid-course defense (GMD) system, the employment of which is planned and executed by U.S. Northern Command (USNORTHCOM). The GMD system is designed to defnd against a limited ICBM attack from rogue states such as North Kores (see Figure 20), and potentially IRAN, but in the event of conflict, it would be used to defend, to the extent feasible, against a ballistic missile attack on the U.S. homeland from any source[52]. Office of the Secretary of Defense, 2019 Missile Defense Review, January, 2019, p. 41.
(56) April 12, 2019. To me, it’s very simple. If a rogue nation or other entity shoots an ICBM, inter-continental ballistic missile, at us, we intercept it[53]. Major Jason Brewer, chief of missile defense operations with the Colorado Army National Guard’s 100th missile defense brigade (which operates the U.S. GMD national missile defense system).
(57) July 19, 2019. Well I’d say first off, we are in a very good place. I can – I can very confidently say right now we have the ability to defend against the ballistic missile threat, for example, that we face from North Korea, as an example. That is an incredibly important capability to maintain and to continue to advance going forward.[54] General Terrence O’Shaughnessy, Commander U.S. Northern Command and North American Aerospace Defense Command, in response to a question about where he thought we should be headed on ballistic missile defense.
(58) August 13, 2019. I have a great deal of confidence in the technical capabilities of the system. Now if we want more rounds we are—you know as I like to say with all the systems you get to the point where you can’t buy the parts anymore you have parts obsolescence issues. So if we want more rounds, we are going to have to have a redesign kill vehicle, and we are pursuing that. But the system we have in the ground today is—is obviously quite capable[55]. Michael Griffin, Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering in response to a question about his confidence in the GMD national missile defense system during a presentation at the Hudson Institute.
(59) August 13, 2019. We know how to do it with existing technology. It would require buying system that we don’t have today; it would require buying more of some of the systems we do have. So it becomes a—it becomes a budgetary priority. You—you would be spending money on missile defense systems that we today are spending another things so that is a budget priority discussion and it is a deterrence policy which I don’t engage, but it is not a technical issue. We know how to do it[56]. Michael Griffin, Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering in response to a question about whether the policy not to deploy a robust homeland defense against Russia and China was due to technical problems to policy decisions.
(60) October 16, 2019. I have no concerns right now. I am confident in the capability we have right now. Lt. General James Dickinson, commander of the U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command, about the U.S. Ground Based Midcourse national missile defense system, following the decision to cancel the Redesigned Kill Vehicle.[57]
(61) January 17, 2020. They are. I have – I have 100 percent confidence. Literally – I don’t say 100 percent very often. I have 100 percent confidence in those capabilities against North Korea. General John E. Hyten, Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in response to the question “Do you think current missile defense systems of the United States are capable of protecting the United States from North Koreans – North Korea’s new missiles?”[58]
(62) January 28, 2020. According to NORTHCOM, while we can be confident in our current GMD posture to counter a North Korean threat for the next five or six years, at the rate North Korea is developing their capabilities, we must begin assuming increased risk around 2025 and beyond. Representative Doug Lamborn at a hearing of the House Armed Services Committee.[59]
(63) January 28, 2020. I do share that assessment with NORTHCOM. John Rood, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, at the same House Armed Services Committee hearing.[60]
(64) February 10, 2020. So if you have an existing fleet [of GBI interceptors]like we have today that we’re very confident in, it handles the current threat, we can defend Hawaii, we can defend the continental United States against the threats that — where they stand today. We know they’re going to evolve. So we know that sometime in the mid to late ‘20s, you’ll start to see a fall-off in the ability of that missile to take on those threats, You’ll start to see reliability issues, right? Just kind of normal for any weapons system that’s deployed for that long. Missile Defense Agency Director Vice Admiral Jon A. Hill at a press briefing on the FY 2021 MDA Budget.[61]
And Some Quotes on Defending Guam (also see #23):
(61) April 2017. The chances of any missile or missiles getting though in my calculation is .000001 – that’s five zeros – percent.[62] George Charfauros, Guam’s homeland security advisor.
(62) August 12, 2017. We are with you 1000 percent, you are safe. U.S. President Donald Trump in a phone call to Guam Governor Eddie Calvo.[63]
(63) August 12, 2017. We are all over this…the wonderful island of Guam is very well protected, White House Chief of Staff John Kelly in a phone call to Guam Governor Eddie Calvo.[64]
(64) August 14, 2017. You know, Guam is well protected. U.S. Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis.[65] Online at:
(65) August 2017. Guam is very heavily protected by missile defense systems at sea and also on the ground. They are very proven missile defense systems.[66] Lt. General (retired) Patrick O’Reilly, former Director of the Missile Defense Agency.
(66) September 2017. Guam is very well protected against North Korean missile attack.[67] General John Hyten, Commander of U.S. Strategic Command.
[1] BAYH: Let me withdraw the question and move on. I think you see where I was heading.
Let me ask you Mr. — Secretary Aldridge, about the effectiveness of the system that’s to be deployed in 2004 and 2005 in protecting against this developing North Korean threat — the 10 land-based missiles proposed for the end of fiscal year 2004 — how effective would they be against the North Korean missile if it were, in fact, launched against our country?
ALDRIDGE: Well, we think that it would be effective. Probably shouldn’t go into a lot of details of…
BAYH: Well, how do you define effective — 90 percent success rate — 75 — 50?
ALDRIDGE: Yes, sir — you would — and you — the way you could achieve these rates is you don’t have to fire just one interceptor per target, you could fire two, as we do in PAC-3.
BAYH: Of course.
ALDRIDGE: And so the effectiveness is in the 90 percent range. Of course, we want the effectiveness to be high enough that we never have to use these things. I mean, that’s the ultimate effectiveness is that they’re never used.
BAYH: There are — there are — there are — there are 10 going online in 2004 — 10 in 2005. The radar is not going to be available — when will that go into place — 2006?
ALDRIDGE: Well, General Kadish has probably got the specific dates for all of those. Let him…
KADISH: We’ll have radars online to handle the early warning and usefulness of the system in ’04, when we put the missiles on alert if everything works out all right. We’ll add the sea-based X-band (ph) if it proves out by — the following year — it’s currently scheduled by September of ’05.
BAYH: So, Secretary Aldridge, your testimony is that with the 10 interceptors going in at the end of fiscal year ’04 and the radar that will be online at that time, we would have a 90 percent effectiveness in shooting down a NATO (ph) Dong II?
ALDRIDGE: Well, it depends on — a lot depends on the continuation of the — of the test and the effective — this precise effectiveness numbers. But I would put — you know, as of today, the projected effectiveness would be in the 90 percent range.
Senate Armed Services Committee, March 18, 2003.
[2] Randy Barrett. “Lawmakers Question Effectiveness of Missile Defense System.” Space News, March 24, 2003, p. 6.
[3] Ann Scott Tyson, “U.S. Missile Defense Being Expanded, General Says,” The Washington Post, p. A10, July 22, 2005.
[4] Jason Sherman, “Experts Question U.S. System’s Ability To Intercept North Korean Missile,” Inside Missile Defense, June 21, 2006.
[5] Robert Burns, “Missile Defense Chief Confident in Ability To Hit Missile,” The Associated Press State and Local Wire, June 23, 2006.
[6] Pentagon Briefing, September 1, 2006.
[7] “Missile Defense Program Overview For The Washington Roundtable On Science And Public Policy,” MDA Briefing Slides, Januaary 29, 2007.
[8] “DoD News Briefing with Gen. Renuart and Lt. Gen. Obering from the Pentagon, Arlington, Va.”, October 2, 2007.
[9] “Obama To Be Told U.S. Missile Defense Capable, General Says,” CNN.com, November 2, 2008.
[10] Senate Armed Services Committee, March 17, 2009.
[11] “I think that the judgement and advice I got was that the 30 silos we have now, or are under construction, are fully adequate to protect us against a North Korean threat for a number of years.”
“I was just in Fort Greely last week, and its an immensly capable system.” And one of the things that I think is important to remember is, it is still a developmental system. It has real capabilities, and I have confidence that if North Korea launched a long-range missile in the direction of the United States, that we would have a high probability of being able to defend ourselves against it.”
Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates, Hearing of the Defense Subcommittee of the Senate Appropriations Committee, June 9, 2009.
[12] SEN Bayh: I’ve bumped up against my time limits here, but there was one final question. You’re briefing the President of the United States. He asks you based on — you know, he’s got to take into consideration what you’re doing in terms of facing these threats. He asks you if there is a rogue launch, what are the percentages that we’re going to be able to hit it and bring it down, what would you tell him?
GEN. O’Reilly: Ninety percent plus.
SEN. Bayh: Ninety percent plus confidence that we could — if there’s a rogue launch from North Korea, let’s say, we could intercept that target and bring it down?
Gen. O’Reilly: Yes. Sir.
Hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee, June 16, 2009.
[13] Viola Gienger, “Gates: Take Defense Steps,” The Salt Lake Tribune, June 18, 2009.
[14] Gen O’ Reilly: ‘Well, we have a very proven missile system in the area of missiles coming out of North Korea. The testing we have done to date, we have a lot of testing still to do against all our capability in all scenarios, but in the scenarios out of North Korea, we have intercepted three times out of Fort Greely, Alaska. The missiles, we actually test them out of Vandenberg, but they’re up at Fort Greely. And then for Hawaii, we have multiple systems (inaudible). A theater high-altitude-area defense system, its an Army mobile system, and then we have the Navy Aegis system. And we also have the…” Margaret Brennan, “US Missile Defense Director Patrick O’Reilly on Bloomberg TV,” Bloomberg TV, July 28, 2009.
[15] “DOD News Briefing with Geoff Morrell from the Pentagon,” News Transcript, U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Public Affairs), April 21, 2010. Available at: http://www.defense.gov/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=4612. Morrell is the Pentagon Press Secretary.
[16] Strategic Forces Subcommittee of the House Armed Services Committee, December 1, 2010.
[17] “Now what does that mean? The posture we have today is one that has us well-protected against the initial ICBMs that might be deployed by states like North Korea and Iran with — that are few in number, relatively slow and lack sophisticated countermeasures. And against this threat, we have the current posture of 30 GBIs and the expected enhancements to come in the defense of the homeland with the future deployment in 2020 time frame of SM-3 2B.” Opening statement of Bradley Roberts, Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary for Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy, Hearing of the Strategic Forces Subcommittee of the Senate Armed Services Committee, April 13, 2011.
[18] Bradley Clapper, “U.S. Hesitant in Condemning North Korean Launch,” The Associated Press, December 13, 2012.
[19]The White House, “Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jay Carney,” March 7, 2013. Available at: http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/03/07/press-briefing-press-secretary-jay-carney-372013
[20] SEN. MCCAIN: Do you believe that we have the ability to intercept a missile if the North Koreans launch a missile, as is widely reported they would do in coming days.
ADM. LOCKLEAR: I believe we have a credible ability to defend the Homeland, to defend Hawaii, to defend Guam, to defend our forward-deployed forces and defend our allies.
SEN. MCCAIN: Do we have the capability to intercept a missile if the North Koreans launch within the next several days?
ADM. LOCKLEAR: We do.
[21] Hearing of the Strategic Forces Subcommittee of the Senate Armed Services Committee, May 9, 2013.
[22] Hearing of the Strategic Forces Subcommittee of the Senate Armed Services Committee, May 9, 2013.
[23] Jason Sherman, “Top Army General Still Confident ib=n GMD System Despite Intercept Test Failure,” Inside Defense SITREP, July 10, 2013.
[24] U.S. Department of Defense, “Department of Defense News Briefing with George Little,” News Transcript, July 9, 2013. Available at: http://www.defense.gov/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=5269.
[25] Amy Guckeen Tolson, “MDA Director Gives Update on Missile Defense,” www.theredstonerocket.com, August 21, 2013.
[26] Lieutenant General David L. Mann, prepared statement, Strategic Forces Subcommittee, House Armed Services Committee, March 25, 2014.
[27] Strategic Forces Subcommittee, House Armed Services Committee, March 25, 2014.
[28] Admiral Bill Gortney, prepared statement for FY 2016 Missile Defense Hearing, Strategic Forces Subcommittee, House Armed Services Committee, March 19, 2015.
[29] Lieutenant General David L. Mann, prepared statement, Strategic Forces Subcommittee, Senate Armed Services Committee, March 25, 2015.
[30] Andrea Shalal, “U.S. Says Ready to Defend Against North Korean Nuclear Threat,” Reuters, October 7, 2015.
[31] Subcommittee on Defense, Senate Appropriations Committee, April 13, 2016. Video available at: http://www.appropriations.senate.gov/hearings/hearing-on-the-fy2017-missile-defense-agency-budget-request.
[32] Written statement, Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, Senate Armed Services Committee, April 13, 2016. Available at: http://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/McKeon_04-13-16.pdf.
[33] Strategic Forces Subcommittee, House Armed Services Committee, April 14, 2016. Video available at: https://armedservices.house.gov/legislation/hearings/missile-defeat-posture-and-strategy-united-states-fy17-presidents-budget-0.
[34] Director, Operational Test and Evaluation, FY 2016 Annual Report, “Ground-Based Midcourse Defense,” p. 421, December 2016. Online at http://www.dote.osd.mil/pub/reports/FY2016/pdf/bmds/2016gmd.pdf.
[35] U.S. Department of Defense, “Department of Defense Press Briefing by Pentagon Press Secretary Peter Cook and Acting Under Secretary of Defense Peter Levine in the Pentagon Briefing Room,” News Transcript, January 3, 2017. Online at https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript-View/Article/1040947/department-of-defense-press-briefing-by-pentagon-press-secretary-peter-cook-and/.
[36] Anthony Capaccio, “Stopping a N. Korean Missile No Sure Thing, U.S. Tester Says,” Bloomberg.com, January 10, 2017. Online at https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-01-10/stopping-a-n-korean-missile-no-sure-thing-u-s-tester-says-ixr2dcu3.
[37] Hearing before the Committee on Armed Services, U.S. Senate, April 6, 2017, in responses to questions. Transcript available at https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/17-34_04-06-17.pdf.
[38] Gordon Block, “Fort Drum Commander Voices Support of Potential Missile Site,” Watertown Daily Times, April 14, 2017. Online at http://www.watertowndailytimes.com/news03/fort-drum-commander-voices-support-of-potential-missile-site-20170414.
[39] Ken Dilanian, “US May Not Be Able to Shoot Down North Korean Missiles, Say Experts, NBC News April 19, 2017. Online at http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/u-s-may-not-be-able-shoot-down-north-korean-n748046.
[40] “US Military Successfully Shoots Down Simulated ICBM for the First Time amid North Korean Threat,” abcnews.com, May 30, 2017. Online at: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-05-31/us-military-shoots-down-simulated-icbm-amid-north-korean-threat/8574612.
[41] Katrina Manson, “Can the United States Defend Itself from a Missile Attack from North Korea?,” Financial Times, June 30, 2017. Online at: https://www.ft.com/content/3e2a5a24-5d41-11e7-9bc8-8055f264aa8b.
[42] Lee Haye-ah, “US Military Chief Says N. Korea Capable of ‘Limited’ Missile Attack,” Yonhap News Agency, July 24, 2017. Online at: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2017/07/24/0401000000AEN20170724000400315.html.
[43] “Gen. Robinson: “We Can Fully Defend Against Ballistic Missile Threat,”” Great Falls Tribune, July 30, 2017. Online at: https://www.greatfallstribune.com/story/news/2017/07/31/gen-robinson-we-can-fully-defend-us-against-ballistic-missile-threat/524271001/.
[44] Bill Gertz, “U.S. and Guam Shielded from North Korean Missiles by High-Tech Defenses,” Freebeacon.com, August 10, 2017. Online at: http://freebeacon.com/national-security/u-s-guam-shielded-north-korean-missiles-high-tech-defenses/.
[45] Debra Killalea, “’Incredibly Fast’: America’s Desperate Last Line of Defence,” Central Telegraph (Australia), September 1, 2017. Online at: https://www.themorningbulletin.com.au/news/incredibly-fast-americas-desperate-last-line-defen/3218864/.
[46] Barbara Opall-Rome, “DoD Missile Defense Deputy: US Children Are Safe from North Korean Threat, Defensenews.com, September 6, 2017. Online at: https://www.defensenews.com/smr/space-missile-defense/2017/09/06/dod-missile-defense-deputy-us-children-are-safe-from-north-korean-threat/.
[47] Zhenhua Lu, “Guam ‘Very Well Protected’ against N. Korean Attack: US Nuclear Commander,” Korean Times, September 21, 2017. Online at: http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/world/2017/09/672_236806.html.
[48] Glenn Kessler, “Fact Checker: Trump’s Claim that a U.S. Interceptor Can Knock Out ICBMs ’97 Percent of the Time,” The Washington Post, October 13, 2017. Online at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2017/10/13/trumps-claim-that-u-s-interceptors-can-knock-out-icmbs-97-percent-of-the-time/?utm_term=.b47c136c557f.
[49] Committee on Armed Services, U.S. Senate, Hearing on “United States Northern Command and United States Southern Command, February 15, 2018. Transcript online at: https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/18-16_02-15-18.pdf.
[50] Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, Committee on Armed Services, U.S. Senate, Hearing on “Ballistic Missile Defense Policies and Programs, March 22, 2018. Transcript online at: https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/18-31_03-22-18.pdf.
[51] Committee on Armed Services, U.S. Senate, Hearing on “Nominations,” April 17, 2018. Transcript online at: file:///C:/Users/George/Documents/MDDownloads/CongTestimony/2018-April17-SASC_Nominations-transcript.pdf.
[52] Office of the Secretary of Defense, 2019 Missile Defense Review, January, 2019, p. 41. Online at: https://media.defense.gov/2019/Jan/17/2002080666/-1/-1/1/2019-MISSILE-DEFENSE-REVIEW.PDF
[53] Jon Soucy, “Army Guard missile brigade executes unique mission,” www.army.mil, April 12, 2019. Online at: https://www.army.mil/article/220185/army_guard_missile_brigade_executes_unique_mission?platform=hootsuite.
[54] CQ Transcriptions, “Center for Strategic and International Studies Holds Discussion on Homeland Security Issues,” July 22, 2019.
[55] CQ Transcriptions, “Hudson Institute Holds Discussion on US Technological Superiority,” August 13, 2019.
[56] CQ Transcriptions, “Hudson Institute Holds Discussion on US Technological Superiority,” August 13, 2019.
[57] Jason Sherman, “Army’s Top Air Defender Remains Confident in GBI Fleet After RKV Termination,” Inside Defense SITREP, October 23, 2019.
[58] Transcript online at: https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/event/200121_AConversationWithGeneralJohnHyten.pdf?8vMO1PZ_loYtR2V0zWY85Ncqzm845PHY.
[59] Jason Sherman, “NORTHCOM: U.S. To Assume ‘Increased Risk’ Against North Korean ICBMs in 2025,” Inside Defense SITREP, January 30, 2020.
[60] Jason Sherman, “NORTHCOM: U.S. To Assume ‘Increased Risk’ Against North Korean ICBMs in 2025,” Inside Defense SITREP, January 30, 2020.
[61] U.S. Department of Defense, “Department of Defense Press Briefing on the President’s Fiscal Year 2021 Defense Budget for the Missile Defense Agency, February 10, 2020. Online at: https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/2081326/department-of-defense-press-briefing-on-the-presidents-fiscal-year-2021-defense/.
[62] Patrick Goodenough, “Guam’s Homeland Security Advisor: 0.000001% Chance of Missile ‘Getting Through’ Defenses,” cnsnews.com, April 15, 2017. Online at: https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/patrick-goodenough/guams-homeland-security-adviser-0000001-chance-missile-getting.
[63] Guam Governor Eddie Calvo, Facebook post, August 12, 2017. Online at: https://www.facebook.com/eddiebazacalvo/posts/1556954981038431.
[64] Guam Governor Eddie Calvo, Facebook post, August 12, 2017. Online at: https://www.facebook.com/eddiebazacalvo/posts/1556954981038431.
[65] “Press Gaggle with Secretary Mattis” News Transcript, U.S. Department of Defense, August 14, 2017. Online at: https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript-View/Article/1278359/press-gaggle-with-secretary-mattis/.
[66] Zenny Phoung, “Missile Expert: Guam is ‘Heavily Protected by Missile Defense Systems at Sea’ and ‘On the Ground,’” cnsnews.com, August 11, 2017. Online at: https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/zenny-phuong/missile-expert-guam-heavily-protected-missile-defense-systems-sea-and .
[67] Zhenhua Lu, “Guam ‘Very Well Protected’ against N. Korean Attack: US Nuclear Commander,” Korean Times, September 21, 2017. Online at: http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/world/2017/09/672_236806.html.
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